Scenario library

Simulations

Newest first. Every scenario keeps its assumptions so the reasoning behind a past decision stays inspectable.

No scenarios yet for the live incident. Open the Northeast Rotini incident and run the diagnosis to generate them.
Archive
SIM-0912 · created Feb 18

Penne — 10% vs. 15% promotional discount

Does a deeper discount pay for itself in Midwest grocery?

Rejected
Demand
+4.2%
Revenue
+$168K
Margin
-$11K
Confidence
Medium
Depth 10% → 15%Same 2-week windowDisplay compliance at 88%
SIM-0884 · created May 05

Protein Rice — Weather-adjusted demand

How much of the spike is weather, and does it need action?

Completed
Demand
+0.0%
Revenue
—
Margin
—
Confidence
High
Weather index normalizes in week 2No promo changeInventory sufficient
SIM-0851 · created Mar 12

Frozen Pizza — Price increase by retailer tier

Which tiers absorb a 3% increase without volume loss?

Implemented
Demand
-1.8%
Revenue
+$96K
Margin
+$71K
Confidence
Medium / High
Tiered +3% / +1.5% / 0%Competitor price unchangedNo promo overlap
SIM-0830 · created Jan 24

Shells — Distribution expansion in Northeast

What is the payback on +5 ACV points of distribution?

Completed
Demand
+2.7%
Revenue
+$195K
Margin
+$51K
Confidence
High
+5 ACV pts phased over 4 weeksNo incremental trade spendAvailability held at 95%
SIM-0806 · created Jan 11

Spaghetti — Back-to-school promotion timing

Does moving the promotion one week earlier increase total uplift?

Completed
Demand
+1.9%
Revenue
+$88K
Margin
+$22K
Confidence
Medium
Shift start -1 weekDepth unchanged at 12%Competitor promo overlap in week 2